Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
His opener came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
